Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (86%) · Thunder at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
7
Thunder 86%
$7.5K
-$96.99
57.3¢ → 56.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Thunderavg 57.2¢ | $7.1K | $7.0K | -$90.44 | 54% 16108-13511 (29619) |
 VeryLucky888 | Thunderavg 57¢ | $285 | $285 | -$2.5 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Thunderavg 61¢ | $145.73 | $82.34 | -$6.56 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
 HRTradingCTR | Sunsavg 41.8¢ | $176.5 | $76.78 | +$2.98 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Thunderavg 57¢ | $34.2 | $33.9 | -$0.3 | 50% 3625-3593 (7218) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Thunderavg 62¢ | $33.42 | $33.06 | -$0.02 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Thunderavg 57¢ | $17.1 | $16.95 | -$0.15 | 63% 6058-3547 (9605) |
Invested
$7,106.22
Value
$7.0K
PnL
-$90.44
Record
54%
16108-13511 (29619)
VeryLucky888Invested
$285
Value
$285
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$145.73
Value
$82.34
PnL
-$6.56
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$176.5
Value
$76.78
PnL
+$2.98
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
Invested
$34.2
Value
$33.9
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
3625-3593 (7218)
Invested
$33.42
Value
$33.06
PnL
-$0.02
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$16.95
PnL
-$0.15
Record
63%
6058-3547 (9605)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.