Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (80%) · Thunder at 80¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
5
Thunder 80%
2 arb excluded
$14.1K
$1.1K
54.4¢ → 79.5¢
+46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Sunsavg 51.7¢ | $3.6K | $4.5K | +$811.67 | 54% 16556-13890 (30446) |
AN Anon455 | Thunderavg 53.3¢ | $3.6K | $3.4K | -$236.99 | 56% 2435-1897 (4332) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Sunsavg 48¢ | $3.1K | $3.4K | +$263.41 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 48¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$50.96 | |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 38.5¢ | $651.76 | $864.21 | +$212.44 | |
TA takeormake | Thunderavg 55.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.6K | +$542.99 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Thunderavg 41.3¢ | $345.99 | $330.84 | -$15.15 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 41.3¢ | $234.1 | $198.24 | -$35.86 | |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 54.8¢ | $111.89 | $132.6 | +$20.71 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Thunderavg 41.4¢ | $32.96 | $62.6 | +$29.64 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Thunderavg 52.3¢ | $24.35 | $9.07 | -$7.18 | 57% 12546-9489 (22035) |
Invested
$3,645.81
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$811.67
Record
54%
16556-13890 (30446)
Invested
$3,600.47
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$236.99
Record
56%
2435-1897 (4332)
Invested
$3,097.87
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$263.41
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,021.55
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$542.99
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$345.99
Value
$330.84
PnL
-$15.15
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$32.96
Value
$62.6
PnL
+$29.64
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
Invested
$24.35
Value
$9.07
PnL
-$7.18
Record
57%
12546-9489 (22035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.