Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (50%) · Thunder at 85¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 27

Thunder85¢Suns15¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.8K

Combined PnL

$997.29

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 84.5¢

+78% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder85%

Suns16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares20,483

Combined PnL+$808.58

Suns5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,987

Combined PnL+$188.71

Thunder — 50%Suns — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Thunderavg 45.5¢	$8.5K	$9.7K	+$1.3K	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Sunsavg 53.7¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	-$107.67	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 53.7¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$45.97
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 48.3¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$61.7
AN Anon455	Thunderavg 55.3¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$112.3	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
JU justaluckydude	Thunderavg 46.8¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$388.59	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
GA gagarin59CTR	Sunsavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$189.55	53% 597-533 (1130)
HRTradingCTR	Sunsavg 53.6¢	$189.42	$188.38	-$1.03	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sunsavg 61¢	$63.57	$67.63	+$4.06	61% 8868-5775 (14643)
GH ghorrock<$100	Thunderavg 49.2¢	$44.25	$48.42	+$22.87	57% 12546-9489 (22035)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Thunderavg 90¢	$24.8	$23.98	-$0.83	50% 585-591 (1176)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Sunsavg 24.8¢	$27	$23.43	-$3.57	59% 29811-20547 (50358)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Sunsavg 64¢	$19.16	$18.86	-$0.3	52% 270-247 (517)

takeormake

Thunder

Invested

$8,454.38

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$5,805.07

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$107.67

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Both legs:

Suns$3,481.5553.7¢-$45.97

Thunder$2,323.5248.3¢-$61.7

Anon455

Thunder

Invested

$3,642.97

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$112.3

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

justaluckydude

Thunder

Invested

$2,622.43

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$388.59

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

gagarin59CTR

Suns

Invested

$2,033.4

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$189.55

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

HRTradingCTR

Suns

Invested

$189.42

Value

$188.38

PnL

-$1.03

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

poshposhCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$63.57

Value

$67.63

PnL

+$4.06

Record

61%

8868-5775 (14643)

ghorrock<$100

Thunder

Invested

$44.25

Value

$48.42

PnL

+$22.87

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

seeeeeeb<$100

Thunder

Invested

$24.8

Value

$23.98

PnL

-$0.83

Record

50%

585-591 (1176)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$27

Value

$23.43

PnL

-$3.57

Record

59%

29811-20547 (50358)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$19.16

Value

$18.86

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

270-247 (517)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.