Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (73%) · Thunder at 89¢ · $17K held

Thunder89¢Suns11¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 89¢

+71% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder89%

Suns11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns3 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares9,846

Combined PnL+$431.24

Thunder8 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares13,346

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Suns — 27%Thunder — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sunsavg 54.5¢	$6.9K	$7.3K	+$434.89	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
AN Anon455	Thunderavg 53.1¢	$3.4K	$4.6K	+$1.2K	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
TA takeormake	Thunderavg 59.5¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$242.36	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Thunderavg 46.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$84.88	48% 413-442 (855)
JU justaluckydude	Thunderavg 49.2¢	$487.99	$426.29	-$61.7	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
OM omnibus-076daa	Thunderavg 54.3¢	$197.87	$193.15	-$4.72	49% 18259-18700 (36959)
RN1	Thunderavg 41¢	$102.5	$110	+$15	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
GH ghorrock<$100	Thunderavg 60.2¢	$68.07	$84.37	+$24.15	57% 12546-9489 (22035)
HRTradingARB<$100	Sunsavg 55.5¢	$71.46	$71.34	-$0.11	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 42.1¢	$28.86	$45.24	+$16.38
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 55.5¢	$42.6	$26.1	-$16.5
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Thunderavg 41.5¢	$43.8	$43.86	+$0.06	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
balthazarCTR<$100	Sunsavg 58.5¢	$11.7	$11.4	-$0.3	62% 20216-12621 (32837)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Sunsavg 18.2¢	$7.45	$4.1	-$3.35	59% 29811-20547 (50358)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Suns

Invested

$6,908.32

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$434.89

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Anon455

Thunder

Invested

$3,375.55

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

takeormake

Thunder

Invested

$2,191.15

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$242.36

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Thunder

Invested

$1,782.51

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$84.88

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

justaluckydude

Thunder

Invested

$487.99

Value

$426.29

PnL

-$61.7

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

omnibus-076daa

Thunder

Invested

$197.87

Value

$193.15

PnL

-$4.72

Record

49%

18259-18700 (36959)

RN1

Thunder

Invested

$102.5

Value

$110

PnL

+$15

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

ghorrock<$100

Thunder

Invested

$68.07

Value

$84.37

PnL

+$24.15

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

HRTradingARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$71.46

Value

$71.34

PnL

-$0.11

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

Both legs:

Thunder$28.8642.1¢+$16.38

Suns$42.655.5¢-$16.5

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Thunder

Invested

$43.8

Value

$43.86

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

balthazarCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$11.7

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$0.3

Record

62%

20216-12621 (32837)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$7.45

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$3.35

Record

59%

29811-20547 (50358)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.