Spread: Thunder (-11.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (100%) · Suns at 60¢ · $1K held
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
4
Suns 100%
$1.2K
$28.44
58.6¢ → 60¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Sunsavg 58.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$24.65 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
TO tomb2456<$100 | Sunsavg 58¢ | $57.42 | $59.4 | +$2.48 | 50% 262-266 (528) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Sunsavg 58.2¢ | $42.54 | $43.85 | +$1.31 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 RN1<$100 | Sunsavg 60¢ | $27.82 | $27.82 | +$0 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
Invested
$1,058.72
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$24.65
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$57.42
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$2.48
Record
50%
262-266 (528)
Invested
$42.54
Value
$43.85
PnL
+$1.31
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
RN1<$100Invested
$27.82
Value
$27.82
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.