Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (50%) · Suns at 57¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 27

Thunder43¢Suns57¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$68.61

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 57.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder43%

Suns57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,179

Combined PnL+$257.73

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,657

Combined PnL-$189.11

Suns — 50%Thunder — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (7 on Suns) disagree here.

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSuns 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD mde4life1986	Sunsavg 54.3¢	$4.2K	$4.4K	+$247.3	49% 144-151 (295)
ComingBackCTR	Thunderavg 48¢	$1.0K	$888.22	-$114.95	62% 3800-2300 (6100)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Thunderavg 45¢	$700.99	$662.05	-$38.94	62% 3908-2372 (6280)
RN1CTR	Thunderavg 46¢	$460	$425	-$35	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
TO tomb2456	Sunsavg 55¢	$112.97	$118.1	+$5.13	50% 262-264 (526)
BO BoomLaLa	Sunsavg 55¢	$109.99	$114.99	+$5	56% 10738-8467 (19205)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Sunsavg 53¢	$55.59	$56.62	+$1.04	56% 24841-19200 (44041)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 53¢	$33.39	$36.22	+$2.84
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 46.3¢	$22.2	$20.4	-$1.8
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Sunsavg 57¢	$33.63	$33.93	+$0.3	50% 3616-3583 (7199)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Thunderavg 45¢	$4.05	$3.82	-$0.23	55% 2171-1792 (3963)

mde4life1986

Suns

Invested

$4,188.6

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$247.3

Record

49%

144-151 (295)

ComingBackCTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,003.16

Value

$888.22

PnL

-$114.95

Record

62%

3800-2300 (6100)

SunlineTickerCTR

Thunder

Invested

$700.99

Value

$662.05

PnL

-$38.94

Record

62%

3908-2372 (6280)

RN1CTR

Thunder

Invested

$460

Value

$425

PnL

-$35

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

tomb2456

Suns

Invested

$112.97

Value

$118.1

PnL

+$5.13

Record

50%

262-264 (526)

BoomLaLa

Suns

Invested

$109.99

Value

$114.99

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

10738-8467 (19205)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$55.59

Value

$56.62

PnL

+$1.04

Record

56%

24841-19200 (44041)

Both legs:

Suns$33.3953¢+$2.84

Thunder$22.246.3¢-$1.8

NatoAlfista<$100

Suns

Invested

$33.63

Value

$33.93

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

3616-3583 (7199)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$0.23

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (7 on Suns) disagree here.

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSuns 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.