Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 72¢ · $149 held · ended Oct 25

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$149.48

Combined PnL

$4.04

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$145.66

Total Shares173

Combined PnL+$4.04

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.82

Total Shares8

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 55¢	$71.5	$93.6	-$0.65	67% 3583-1733 (5316)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 54¢	$30.78	$37.08	+$1.48	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 75.6¢	$11.77	$14.98	+$3.21	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$3.82	$3.82	+$0	58% 33858-24647 (58505)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$71.5

Value

$93.6

PnL

-$0.65

Record

67%

3583-1733 (5316)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$30.78

Value

$37.08

PnL

+$1.48

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$11.77

Value

$14.98

PnL

+$3.21

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

33858-24647 (58505)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.