Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 49¢ · $230 held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 67%
$230.09
-$0.52
49¢ → 49¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $179.73 | $179.73 | -$0 | 55% 12102-9989 (22091) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 51.7¢ | $40.79 | $40.55 | -$0.42 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $9.8 | -$0.1 | 56% 6347-5081 (11428) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.