Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 85¢ · $622 held

Over15¢Under85¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$621.81

Combined PnL

$115.36

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 85¢

+87% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$320.32

Total Shares577

Combined PnL+$117.47

Under3 traders

Total Value$301.49

Total Shares646

Combined PnL-$2.11

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 35¢	$194.95	$311.92	+$116.97	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 44.4¢	$230.73	$231.3	+$0.57	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 45¢	$45.77	$44.85	-$0.47	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 70¢	$27.56	$25.35	-$2.21	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$7.9	$8.4	+$0.5	56% 6496-5192 (11688)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$194.95

Value

$311.92

PnL

+$116.97

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$230.73

Value

$231.3

PnL

+$0.57

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$45.77

Value

$44.85

PnL

-$0.47

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$27.56

Value

$25.35

PnL

-$2.21

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.9

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

6496-5192 (11688)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.