Magic vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.7K
$202.73
45.1¢ → 53.5¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 44.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$219.79 | 55% 3104-2515 (5619) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.3¢ | $70.13 | $66.77 | -$3.36 | 46% 328-382 (710) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 63.4¢ | $39.04 | $27.72 | -$11.32 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $21.6 | $19.26 | -$2.34 | 52% 7071-6423 (13494) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $2.68 | $2.68 | +$0 | 71% 18315-7461 (25776) |
SE seeeeeeb<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $2.68 | $2.64 | -$0.04 | 49% 359-381 (740) |
Invested
$1,357.79
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$219.79
Record
55%
3104-2515 (5619)
Invested
$70.13
Value
$66.77
PnL
-$3.36
Record
46%
328-382 (710)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$39.04
Value
$27.72
PnL
-$11.32
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$19.26
PnL
-$2.34
Record
52%
7071-6423 (13494)
Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.68
PnL
+$0
Record
71%
18315-7461 (25776)
Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.64
PnL
-$0.04
Record
49%
359-381 (740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.