Spread: Knicks (-9.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (50%) · Magic at 58¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Knicks42¢Magic58¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$1.97

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 58¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 6 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks42%

Magic58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic3 traders

Total Value$331.98

Total Shares718

Combined PnL+$5.47

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$273.58

Total Shares579

Combined PnL-$3.5

Magic — 50%Knicks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Magicavg 51¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$96.59	55% 12487-10261 (22748)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 51¢	$3.5K	$4.0K	+$575.65
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 52.2¢	$3.0K	$2.3K	-$672.24
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Magicavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$9.47	56% 2114-1685 (3799)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 51¢	$772.48	$689.71	-$82.77
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 45¢	$436.91	$529.15	+$92.24
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Knicksavg 48.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$93.58	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 48.7¢	$903.16	$751.74	-$151.41
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 49.3¢	$281.09	$338.92	+$57.83
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Magicavg 44.2¢	$615.3	$681.88	+$66.58	46% 327-379 (706)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 44.2¢	$355.12	$409.4	+$54.28
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 46.8¢	$260.17	$272.48	+$12.31
SU SunlineTicker	Magicavg 57¢	$204.55	$206.79	+$2.25	67% 3573-1724 (5297)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Knicksavg 43¢	$197.37	$206.55	-$2.3	61% 4757-3017 (7774)
NA NatoAlfista	Magicavg 58¢	$91	$94.07	+$3.07	49% 3190-3370 (6560)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Knicksavg 42.2¢	$60.3	$64.23	-$1.25	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
HRTrading<$100	Magicavg 48.8¢	$30.96	$31.12	+$0.15	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Knicksavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.8	+$0.05	51% 4293-4089 (8382)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$6,451.07

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$96.59

Record

55%

12487-10261 (22748)

Both legs:

Magic$3,458.0151¢+$575.65

Knicks$2,993.0552.2¢-$672.24

Anon455ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$1,209.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.47

Record

56%

2114-1685 (3799)

Both legs:

Magic$772.4851¢-$82.77

Knicks$436.9145¢+$92.24

takeormakeARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1,184.24

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$93.58

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

Both legs:

Knicks$903.1648.7¢-$151.41

Magic$281.0949.3¢+$57.83

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$615.3

Value

$681.88

PnL

+$66.58

Record

46%

327-379 (706)

Both legs:

Magic$355.1244.2¢+$54.28

Knicks$260.1746.8¢+$12.31

SunlineTicker

Magic

Invested

$204.55

Value

$206.79

PnL

+$2.25

Record

67%

3573-1724 (5297)

Forecastication2CTR

Knicks

Invested

$197.37

Value

$206.55

PnL

-$2.3

Record

61%

4757-3017 (7774)

NatoAlfista

Magic

Invested

$91

Value

$94.07

PnL

+$3.07

Record

49%

3190-3370 (6560)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$60.3

Value

$64.23

PnL

-$1.25

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

HRTrading<$100

Magic

Invested

$30.96

Value

$31.12

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

RLWGCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

4293-4089 (8382)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 6 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.