Spread: Knicks (-7.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (33%) · Magic at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
6
Magic 33%
$7.3K
$6.54
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Magicavg 50¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$38.51 | 54% 540-460 (1000) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Knicksavg 50¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$27.06 | 61% 4514-2866 (7380) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Magicavg 50¢ | $500 | $505 | +$5 | 69% 4261-1921 (6182) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR | Knicksavg 52¢ | $208 | $196 | -$10 | 53% 307-271 (578) |
AS astapzippoCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 49¢ | $49 | $49.5 | +$0.5 | 58% 1913-1395 (3308) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 50.3¢ | $24.67 | $24.26 | -$0.42 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
Invested
$3,851
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$38.51
Record
54%
540-460 (1000)
Invested
$2,706
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$27.06
Record
61%
4514-2866 (7380)
Invested
$500
Value
$505
PnL
+$5
Record
69%
4261-1921 (6182)
Invested
$208
Value
$196
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
307-271 (578)
Invested
$49
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
1913-1395 (3308)
Invested
$24.67
Value
$24.26
PnL
-$0.42
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.