Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Knicks (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (80%) · Magic at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
5
Magic 80%
$1.6K
$4.35
45.4¢ → 46¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Magicavg 44.7¢ | $541.48 | $557.84 | +$16.35 | 55% 12124-10004 (22128) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Magicavg 46¢ | $460 | $460 | +$0 | 69% 4273-1923 (6196) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Knicksavg 56¢ | $336 | $324 | -$12 | 53% 309-271 (580) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Magicavg 46¢ | $230 | $189.98 | +$0 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Magicavg 46¢ | $19.32 | $19.32 | +$0 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
Invested
$541.48
Value
$557.84
PnL
+$16.35
Record
55%
12124-10004 (22128)
Invested
$460
Value
$460
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
4273-1923 (6196)
Invested
$336
Value
$324
PnL
-$12
Record
53%
309-271 (580)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$230
Value
$189.98
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31709-22957 (54666)
Invested
$19.32
Value
$19.32
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.