Spread: Knicks (-5.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (38%) · Magic at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Knicks4¢Magic96¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$215.01

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 96.5¢

+93% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks4%

Magic97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,146

Combined PnL+$281.02

Knicks5 traders

Total Value$344.01

Total Shares777

Combined PnL-$66.01

Magic — 38%Knicks — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Magicavg 51.5¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$254.95	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
VeryLucky888	Magicavg 44¢	$239.13	$260.87	+$21.74	58% 33858-24647 (58505)
AN Anon455CTR	Knicksavg 52¢	$332.8	$259.08	-$73.72	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Knicksavg 32¢	$160.72	$212.73	+$52.01	52% 7071-6423 (13494)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 32¢	$118.72	$150.26	+$31.54
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 40¢	$42	$62.47	+$20.47
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Knicksavg 52¢	$58.24	$66.08	+$7.84	46% 328-382 (710)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Magicavg 42.5¢	$48.8	$53.9	+$4.32	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
US User7429CTR<$100	Knicksavg 64¢	$12.08	$10.9	-$1.18	57% 6391-4730 (11121)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Knicksavg 49¢	$13.2	$5	+$0.85	47% 2893-3220 (6113)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Knicksavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.95	+$0.2	51% 4438-4219 (8657)

takeormake

Magic

Invested

$1,787.92

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$254.95

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

VeryLucky888

Magic

Invested

$239.13

Value

$260.87

PnL

+$21.74

Record

58%

33858-24647 (58505)

Anon455CTR

Knicks

Invested

$332.8

Value

$259.08

PnL

-$73.72

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$160.72

Value

$212.73

PnL

+$52.01

Record

52%

7071-6423 (13494)

Both legs:

Knicks$118.7232¢+$31.54

Magic$4240¢+$20.47

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$58.24

Value

$66.08

PnL

+$7.84

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Magic

Invested

$48.8

Value

$53.9

PnL

+$4.32

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

User7429CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$12.08

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$1.18

Record

57%

6391-4730 (11121)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$13.2

Value

PnL

+$0.85

Record

47%

2893-3220 (6113)

RLWGCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.