Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (29%) · Knicks at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Knicks63¢Magic37¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 29%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$103.9

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 63¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks63%

Magic37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,888

Combined PnL+$93.73

Magic5 traders

Total Value$159.5

Total Shares377

Combined PnL+$10.17

Knicks — 29%Magic — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 59.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$85.83	55% 12487-10261 (22748)
AN Anon455	Knicksavg 63¢	$497.37	$505.26	+$7.89	56% 2114-1685 (3799)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Magicavg 38¢	$82.44	$90.03	+$7.59	67% 3573-1724 (5297)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Magicavg 45¢	$31.95	$29.11	-$2.84	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Magicavg 39¢	$19.81	$20.78	+$0.96	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Magicavg 28.9¢	$9.79	$14.05	+$4.26	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Magicavg 40¢	$5.33	$5.53	+$0.2	58% 33251-24142 (57393)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$1,544.52

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$85.83

Record

55%

12487-10261 (22748)

Anon455

Knicks

Invested

$497.37

Value

$505.26

PnL

+$7.89

Record

56%

2114-1685 (3799)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$82.44

Value

$90.03

PnL

+$7.59

Record

67%

3573-1724 (5297)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$31.95

Value

$29.11

PnL

-$2.84

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$19.81

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$0.96

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$9.79

Value

$14.05

PnL

+$4.26

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.