Spread: Knicks (-13.5)

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (67%) · Magic at 59¢ · $769 held · ended Oct 25

Knicks41¢Magic59¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$769.18

Combined PnL

$192.36

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 59¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks41%

Magic59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic2 traders

Total Value$429.18

Total Shares727

Combined PnL+$195.49

Knicks1 trader

Total Value$32.91

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$3.13

Magic — 67%Knicks — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Magicavg 55¢	$230.95	$426.23	+$195.29	46% 328-382 (710)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Knicksavg 33.5¢	$283.62	$307.09	+$23.47	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 33.5¢	$152.01	$186.14	+$34.13
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 64.2¢	$131.61	$120.95	-$10.66
HRTradingCTR<$100	Knicksavg 45.3¢	$36.04	$32.91	-$3.13	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
RL RLWG<$100	Magicavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.95	+$0.2	51% 4438-4219 (8657)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Magic

Invested

$230.95

Value

$426.23

PnL

+$195.29

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

takeormakeARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$283.62

Value

$307.09

PnL

+$23.47

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

Both legs:

Knicks$152.0133.5¢+$34.13

Magic$131.6164.2¢-$10.66

HRTradingCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$36.04

Value

$32.91

PnL

-$3.13

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

RLWG<$100

Magic

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Magic

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.