Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Knicks, while the market favors Magic (98%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Knicks (-12.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (22%) · Knicks at 2.0¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Knicks2¢Magic98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$880.5

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 2¢

-96% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks2%

Magic98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,515

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares7,566

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Magic — 78%Knicks — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMagic 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMagic 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Magicavg 56¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	+$503.01	52% 5349-4912 (10261)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Knicksavg 48.3¢	$3.7K	$1.6K	$-2.1K	55% 12568-10337 (22905)
TO torta.tech	Magicavg 50¢	$679	$1.1K	+$393.82	75% 6267-2062 (8329)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Magicavg 55¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 55¢	$550	$790	+$240
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 46¢	$460	$210	-$250
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Magicavg 54¢	$665.94	$891.33	+$225.39	46% 328-382 (710)
TA takeormake	Magicavg 62.6¢	$659.97	$699.66	+$39.68	55% 3104-2515 (5619)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Magicavg 51¢	$34.63	$53.64	+$19.01	54% 5794-4965 (10759)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Magicavg 65¢	$12.6	$13.2	+$0.6	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
HRTrading<$100	Magicavg 59¢	$9.86	$11.9	+$2.04	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Knicksavg 50¢	$2.5	$1.05	-$1.45	51% 4438-4219 (8657)

Nooserac

Magic

Invested

$2,187

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$503.01

Record

52%

5349-4912 (10261)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Knicks

Invested

$3,650.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

55%

12568-10337 (22905)

torta.tech

Magic

Invested

$679

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$393.82

Record

75%

6267-2062 (8329)

Anon455ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$1,010

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

Both legs:

Magic$55055¢+$240

Knicks$46046¢-$250

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Magic

Invested

$665.94

Value

$891.33

PnL

+$225.39

Record

46%

328-382 (710)

takeormake

Magic

Invested

$659.97

Value

$699.66

PnL

+$39.68

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Magic

Invested

$34.63

Value

$53.64

PnL

+$19.01

Record

54%

5794-4965 (10759)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Magic

Invested

$12.6

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

HRTrading<$100

Magic

Invested

$9.86

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$2.04

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

RLWGCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.45

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMagic 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMagic 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.