Spread: Knicks (-11.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (50%) · Magic at 98¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
4
Magic 50%
2 arb excluded
$8.0K
$2.1K
52.8¢ → 98¢
+86% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Magicavg 53.1¢ | $3.0K | $5.1K | +$2.1K | 55% 12568-10337 (22905) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Magicavg 51.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$28.03 | 46% 328-382 (710) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Knicksavg 40¢ | $1.1K | $964.63 | -$153.69 | 55% 3104-2515 (5619) |
| └ Magic leg | Magicavg 59.5¢ | $452.94 | $590.28 | +$137.34 | |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 40¢ | $665.38 | $374.35 | -$291.03 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Knicksavg 47.9¢ | $1.1K | $700.11 | -$402.95 | 56% 2130-1695 (3825) |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 47.9¢ | $925.56 | $511.58 | -$413.98 | |
| └ Magic leg | Magicavg 69.2¢ | $177.5 | $188.53 | +$11.03 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 43.3¢ | $91.27 | $92.84 | +$1.57 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.2 | -$0.45 | 51% 4438-4219 (8657) |
Invested
$3,023.5
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
55%
12568-10337 (22905)
Invested
$1,075.06
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$28.03
Record
46%
328-382 (710)
Invested
$1,118.32
Value
$964.63
PnL
-$153.69
Record
55%
3104-2515 (5619)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,103.06
Value
$700.11
PnL
-$402.95
Record
56%
2130-1695 (3825)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$91.27
Value
$92.84
PnL
+$1.57
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.45
Record
51%
4438-4219 (8657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.