Spread: Knicks (-10.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (50%) · Magic at 62¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Knicks39¢Magic61¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$65.3

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 61.5¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks39%

Magic62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic3 traders

Total Value$532.71

Total Shares721

Combined PnL+$84.05

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$214.2

Total Shares571

Combined PnL-$18.75

Magic — 50%Knicks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Knicksavg 53.6¢	$6.3K	$6.0K	-$283.48	55% 12487-10261 (22748)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 53.6¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$193.86
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 51¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$89.62
TA takeormake	Magicavg 52.7¢	$363.44	$443.06	+$79.62	55% 3088-2507 (5595)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Knicksavg 44.9¢	$167.86	$177.64	+$9.78	46% 327-379 (706)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 44.9¢	$97.98	$98.1	+$0.12
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 48.3¢	$69.88	$79.54	+$9.66
VeryLucky888CTR	Knicksavg 41¢	$208.2	$174.82	-$16.57	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
HRTrading<$100	Magicavg 48.6¢	$56.35	$61.02	+$4.67	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
AS astapzippoCTR<$100	Knicksavg 39¢	$39	$37.5	-$1.5	58% 1940-1420 (3360)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Magicavg 59¢	$28.87	$28.63	-$0.24	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$2.55	$1.88	-$0.67	51% 4293-4089 (8382)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$6,279.99

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$283.48

Record

55%

12487-10261 (22748)

Both legs:

Knicks$3,308.5353.6¢-$193.86

Magic$2,971.4651¢-$89.62

takeormake

Magic

Invested

$363.44

Value

$443.06

PnL

+$79.62

Record

55%

3088-2507 (5595)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$167.86

Value

$177.64

PnL

+$9.78

Record

46%

327-379 (706)

Both legs:

Knicks$97.9844.9¢+$0.12

Magic$69.8848.3¢+$9.66

VeryLucky888CTR

Knicks

Invested

$208.2

Value

$174.82

PnL

-$16.57

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

HRTrading<$100

Magic

Invested

$56.35

Value

$61.02

PnL

+$4.67

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

astapzippoCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$39

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

1940-1420 (3360)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Magic

Invested

$28.87

Value

$28.63

PnL

-$0.24

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

RLWGCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.55

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.67

Record

51%

4293-4089 (8382)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.