Spread: Magic (-4.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Knicks
8
Knicks 50%
$2.9K
-$386.58
76.1¢ → 88¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKnicks at 88%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Knicksavg 76¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0 | 48% 959-1026 (1985) |
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR | Magicavg 23.3¢ | $500 | $471.95 | -$28.05 | 50% 17-17 (34) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR | Magicavg 24¢ | $480 | $440 | -$40 | 52% 244-226 (470) |
 RN1 | Knicksavg 76.8¢ | $246.84 | $244.34 | -$2.5 | 55% 45430-37648 (83078) |
AD adururuCTR | Magicavg 24.4¢ | $488.8 | $190 | -$298.8 | 54% 316-268 (584) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Knicksavg 77.4¢ | $23.23 | $22.8 | +$0.02 | 55% 14891-12190 (27081) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Magicavg 22¢ | $30.25 | $13.06 | -$17.19 | 50% 631-627 (1258) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Knicksavg 86¢ | $3.92 | $3.85 | -$0.07 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
Invested
$1,466.8
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
959-1026 (1985)
Invested
$500
Value
$471.95
PnL
-$28.05
Record
50%
17-17 (34)
Invested
$480
Value
$440
PnL
-$40
Record
52%
244-226 (470)
RN1Invested
$246.84
Value
$244.34
PnL
-$2.5
Record
55%
45430-37648 (83078)
Invested
$488.8
Value
$190
PnL
-$298.8
Record
54%
316-268 (584)
Invested
$23.23
Value
$22.8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
55%
14891-12190 (27081)
Invested
$30.25
Value
$13.06
PnL
-$17.19
Record
50%
631-627 (1258)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.92
Value
$3.85
PnL
-$0.07
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.