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Over
HRTradingCTR<$100Under
hammyandcheeseOverOverOverUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5
Resolved Over. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.2K
Combined PnL
-$0.9
Smart Money Signal
Under
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Under2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares82
Combined PnL-$53.82
Over3 traders
Total Value$108
Total Shares108
Combined PnL+$52.92
Under — 40%Over — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Overavg 32.8¢ | $455.44 | $1.0K | +$618.42 | 56% 2435-1897 (4332) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 32.8¢ | $343.08 | $1.0K | +$702.69 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 75¢ | $84.27 | — | -$84.27 | |
HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $53.82 | — | -$53.82 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
hammyandcheese | Overavg 51¢ | $108 | $108 | +$52.92 | 58% 341-251 (592) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 16556-13890 (30446) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 3934-2398 (6332) |
AN
Anon455ARB<$100Invested
$455.44
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$618.42
Record
56%
2435-1897 (4332)
Both legs:
Over$343.0832.8¢+$702.69
Under$84.2775¢-$84.27
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$53.82
Value
—
PnL
-$53.82
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
hammyandcheeseInvested
$108
Value
$108
PnL
+$52.92
Record
58%
341-251 (592)
HO
HomeRunHazard<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
16556-13890 (30446)
TA
takeormake<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
SU
SunlineTickerCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
3934-2398 (6332)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x178d9d47...803b21
Slug
nba-min-cle-2026-10-26-total-238pt5