Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 82¢ · $1K held
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$1.0K
$17.59
59¢ → 81.5¢
+38% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 82%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 59¢ | $868.48 | $883.2 | +$14.72 | 62% 3928-2392 (6320) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $46.22 | $47 | +$0.78 | 65% 1634-884 (2518) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $34.77 | $36.6 | +$1.83 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 59.8¢ | $31.29 | $31.38 | +$0.09 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $10.03 | $10.2 | +$0.17 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
Invested
$868.48
Value
$883.2
PnL
+$14.72
Record
62%
3928-2392 (6320)
Invested
$46.22
Value
$47
PnL
+$0.78
Record
65%
1634-884 (2518)
Invested
$34.77
Value
$36.6
PnL
+$1.83
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$31.29
Value
$31.38
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$10.03
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$0.17
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.