Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 65¢ · $91K held · ended Oct 26

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$90.6K

Combined PnL

$4.8K

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 64.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 18 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$58.7K

Total Shares93,866

Combined PnL+$9.6K

Over10 traders

Total Value$21.6K

Total Shares57,633

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 52¢	$42.0K	$50.5K	+$8.5K	46% 392-455 (847)
CH chongchong37CTR	Overavg 48¢	$19.2K	$15.0K	$-3.2K	50% 72-72 (144)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$10.4K	$9.5K	-$882.14	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.6¢	$7.2K	$5.6K	$-1.5K
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.3¢	$3.3K	$3.9K	+$637.9
AN Anon455	Underavg 54¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$414.95	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
NooseracCTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$2.9K	$2.3K	-$559.31	52% 5657-5205 (10862)
ZY Zywoo123CTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.3K	-$548.95	52% 927-866 (1793)
GA GamblingOdyssey	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$318.99	51% 829-786 (1615)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	Underavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$231	38% 409-667 (1076)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$1.2K	$950.58	-$256.69	62% 3928-2392 (6320)
CH chiefphi	Underavg 56.3¢	$737.04	$818.53	+$81.49	56% 79-61 (140)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$960	$742.35	-$207.65	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$603	$575	-$17.5	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$260	$312.5	+$35
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$343	$262.5	-$52.5
heyboy800	Underavg 55¢	$495	$562.5	+$67.5	62% 839-522 (1361)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 55¢	$326.95	$360.63	+$33.68	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
RN1	Underavg 52¢	$131.9	$146.87	+$15.11	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 47.4¢	$140.75	$129.12	-$11.63	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.4¢	$95.23	$75.37	-$19.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.9¢	$45.52	$53.75	+$8.23
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Overavg 48¢	$255	$98.18	-$24.23	52% 270-246 (516)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Overavg 49¢	$125	$95.66	-$29.34	58% 179-127 (306)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 43.5¢	$97.28	$83.86	-$13.42	48% 413-442 (855)
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 51.9¢	$69.52	$81.18	+$11.66	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.9¢	$39.91	$48.03	+$8.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$39.78	$33.15	+$3.54
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$25.63	$26.21	+$2.04	50% 3628-3599 (7227)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$16.45	$13.83	-$2.63	50% 174-174 (348)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$41,997.76

Value

$50.5K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

46%

392-455 (847)

chongchong37CTR

Over

Invested

$19,200

Value

$15.0K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

50%

72-72 (144)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$10,414.86

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$882.14

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Over$7,157.7447.6¢$-1.5K

Under$3,257.1352.3¢+$637.9

Anon455

Under

Invested

$2,729.37

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$414.95

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

NooseracCTR

Over

Invested

$2,881.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$559.31

Record

52%

5657-5205 (10862)

Zywoo123CTR

Over

Invested

$2,927.73

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$548.95

Record

52%

927-866 (1793)

GamblingOdyssey

Under

Invested

$1,478.98

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$318.99

Record

51%

829-786 (1615)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

Under

Invested

$1,144

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$231

Record

38%

409-667 (1076)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$1,207.28

Value

$950.58

PnL

-$256.69

Record

62%

3928-2392 (6320)

chiefphi

Under

Invested

$737.04

Value

$818.53

PnL

+$81.49

Record

56%

79-61 (140)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$960

Value

$742.35

PnL

-$207.65

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$603

Value

$575

PnL

-$17.5

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

Both legs:

Invested

$495

Value

$562.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

62%

839-522 (1361)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$326.95

Value

$360.63

PnL

+$33.68

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

RN1

Under

Invested

$131.9

Value

$146.87

PnL

+$15.11

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$140.75

Value

$129.12

PnL

-$11.63

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Both legs:

Over$95.2347.4¢-$19.86

Under$45.5252.9¢+$8.23

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Over

Invested

$255

Value

$98.18

PnL

-$24.23

Record

52%

270-246 (516)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Over

Invested

$125

Value

$95.66

PnL

-$29.34

Record

58%

179-127 (306)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$97.28

Value

$83.86

PnL

-$13.42

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$69.52

Value

$81.18

PnL

+$11.66

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Both legs:

Under$39.9151.9¢+$8.12

Over$39.7845¢+$3.54

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.63

Value

$26.21

PnL

+$2.04

Record

50%

3628-3599 (7227)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.45

Value

$13.83

PnL

-$2.63

Record

50%

174-174 (348)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 18 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.