Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 53¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$10.2K
-$121.56
47.6¢ → 52.5¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZY Zywoo123 | Overavg 47¢ | $5.1K | $5.0K | -$108.18 | 52% 926-863 (1789) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 52.9¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$76.06 | 54% 16108-13511 (29619) |
 ComingBack | Overavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $902.06 | -$88.25 | 62% 3801-2301 (6102) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 51.7¢ | $220.31 | $230.29 | +$9.98 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $113.84 | $113.82 | -$0.01 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49¢ | $83.26 | $80.75 | -$2.51 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48.5¢ | $30.58 | $33.08 | +$2.5 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $132.5 | $105.99 | -$11.09 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $7.32 | $7.24 | -$0.08 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
Invested
$5,084.53
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$108.18
Record
52%
926-863 (1789)
Invested
$3,827.83
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$76.06
Record
54%
16108-13511 (29619)
ComingBackInvested
$1,000.11
Value
$902.06
PnL
-$88.25
Record
62%
3801-2301 (6102)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$220.31
Value
$230.29
PnL
+$9.98
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Invested
$113.84
Value
$113.82
PnL
-$0.01
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$132.5
Value
$105.99
PnL
-$11.09
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.32
Value
$7.24
PnL
-$0.08
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.