Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 49¢ · $415 held
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$414.86
-$21.38
50.9¢ → 48.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Overavg 52¢ | $185.12 | $170.88 | -$14.24 | 52% 268-243 (511) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 48.9¢ | $124.81 | $122.69 | -$2.12 | 54% 52380-44285 (96665) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 52.2¢ | $54.33 | $51.65 | -$2.68 | 56% 24841-19200 (44041) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 51¢ | $171.08 | $41.08 | -$4.86 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $26.32 | $28.56 | +$2.52 | 63% 5990-3478 (9468) |
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$185.12
Value
$170.88
PnL
-$14.24
Record
52%
268-243 (511)
RN1CTRInvested
$124.81
Value
$122.69
PnL
-$2.12
Record
54%
52380-44285 (96665)
Invested
$54.33
Value
$51.65
PnL
-$2.68
Record
56%
24841-19200 (44041)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$171.08
Value
$41.08
PnL
-$4.86
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
Invested
$26.32
Value
$28.56
PnL
+$2.52
Record
63%
5990-3478 (9468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.