Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 53¢ · $28K held · ended Oct 26

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

-$228.15

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 53¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares24,081

Combined PnL+$313.4

Over6 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares20,851

Combined PnL-$541.54

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$10.4K	$10.7K	+$301.92	48% 413-442 (855)
TI timezonewarriorCTR	Overavg 49¢	$8.4K	$8.2K	-$258.57	44% 101-128 (229)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$67.26	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$67.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$134.71
NooseracCTR	Overavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$135.88	52% 5657-5205 (10862)
CH chiefphi	Underavg 53.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$35.41	56% 79-61 (140)
GA gagarin59	Underavg 52¢	$999.96	$999.96	+$0	53% 597-533 (1130)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 40.9¢	$880.72	$989.53	+$117.76	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.9¢	$552.3	$702.9	+$150.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$328.42	$286.62	-$32.84
latvian.demonCTR	Overavg 60¢	$600	$480.09	-$139.91	54% 596-512 (1108)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 44.5¢	$411.1	$467.44	+$56.34	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
RN1	Underavg 46¢	$115	$130	-$8.75	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Overavg 59¢	$49.17	$51.76	+$2.59	62% 3928-2392 (6320)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$22.62	$30.16	+$7.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$26.55	$21.6	-$4.95
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$54	$48	-$6	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$42.29	$43.58	-$1.56	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Overavg 51.3¢	$16.66	$15.57	-$1.09	53% 1088-961 (2049)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.8	-$0.1	50% 7452-7495 (14947)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 37¢	$3.21	$4.07	+$0.86	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$10,386.66

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$301.92

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

timezonewarriorCTR

Over

Invested

$8,446.65

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$258.57

Record

44%

101-128 (229)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,071.86

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$67.26

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

Both legs:

Over$1,677.8950¢-$67.45

Under$1,393.9747.4¢+$134.71

NooseracCTR

Over

Invested

$1,284.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$135.88

Record

52%

5657-5205 (10862)

chiefphi

Under

Invested

$1,165.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$35.41

Record

56%

79-61 (140)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$999.96

Value

$999.96

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$880.72

Value

$989.53

PnL

+$117.76

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Under$552.340.9¢+$150.61

Over$328.4255¢-$32.84

latvian.demonCTR

Over

Invested

$600

Value

$480.09

PnL

-$139.91

Record

54%

596-512 (1108)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$411.1

Value

$467.44

PnL

+$56.34

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

RN1

Under

Invested

$115

Value

$130

PnL

-$8.75

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Over

Invested

$49.17

Value

$51.76

PnL

+$2.59

Record

62%

3928-2392 (6320)

Both legs:

Under$22.6239¢+$7.54

Over$26.5559¢-$4.95

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54

Value

$48

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$42.29

Value

$43.58

PnL

-$1.56

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.66

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$1.09

Record

53%

1088-961 (2049)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

7452-7495 (14947)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.21

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$0.86

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.