Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 47¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$39.36

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 47¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,210

Combined PnL-$60.2

Over3 traders

Total Value$447.08

Total Shares815

Combined PnL+$20.84

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$831.19	$751.81	-$79.39	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$533.54	$539.42	+$5.85	48% 413-442 (855)
AN Anon455	Overavg 54.4¢	$236.43	$238.98	+$2.54	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
TA takeormake	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$192.5	+$21	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Underavg 39¢	$248	$115.32	+$18.6	52% 270-246 (516)
CH chiefphiCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$85	$79.69	-$5.31	56% 79-61 (140)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$72.81	$72.01	-$0.8	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 61¢	$18.3	$15.6	-$2.7	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$12.88	$13.42	+$0.54	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.25	+$0.3	50% 6607-6589 (13196)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$831.19

Value

$751.81

PnL

-$79.39

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$533.54

Value

$539.42

PnL

+$5.85

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$236.43

Value

$238.98

PnL

+$2.54

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$21

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Under

Invested

$248

Value

$115.32

PnL

+$18.6

Record

52%

270-246 (516)

chiefphiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85

Value

$79.69

PnL

-$5.31

Record

56%

79-61 (140)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.81

Value

$72.01

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$18.3

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$2.7

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.88

Value

$13.42

PnL

+$0.54

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.