Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (43%) · Timberwolves at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Cavaliers14¢Timberwolves86¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$7.26

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 86¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers14%

Timberwolves86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$455.52

Total Shares529

Combined PnL+$9.96

Cavaliers4 traders

Total Value$264

Total Shares750

Combined PnL-$2.7

Timberwolves — 43%Cavaliers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTimberwolves 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 21.3¢	$1.1K	$990.68	-$71.24	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 78.7¢	$517.8	$542.85	+$25.05
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 21.3¢	$544.12	$447.83	-$96.29
HA Harmful-inclusion	Timberwolvesavg 87¢	$202.71	$202.71	+$0	57% 135-102 (237)
TO tomb2456	Timberwolvesavg 65¢	$118.61	$158.76	+$5.47	50% 262-266 (528)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Cavaliersavg 38¢	$119.32	$119.32	-$4.71	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
RN1CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 35¢	$87.5	$95	-$3.75	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
HRTrading<$100	Timberwolvesavg 78.6¢	$89.56	$94.05	+$4.49	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 21¢	$31.5	$36	+$4.5	—
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 35¢	$12.6	$13.68	+$1.26	57% 27008-20057 (47065)

takeormakeARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,061.92

Value

$990.68

PnL

-$71.24

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$517.878.7¢+$25.05

Cavaliers$544.1221.3¢-$96.29

Harmful-inclusion

Timberwolves

Invested

$202.71

Value

$202.71

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

135-102 (237)

tomb2456

Timberwolves

Invested

$118.61

Value

$158.76

PnL

+$5.47

Record

50%

262-266 (528)

Forecastication2CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$119.32

Value

$119.32

PnL

-$4.71

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

RN1CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$87.5

Value

$95

PnL

-$3.75

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

HRTrading<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$89.56

Value

$94.05

PnL

+$4.49

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$31.5

Value

$36

PnL

+$4.5

Record

—

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$12.6

Value

$13.68

PnL

+$1.26

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTimberwolves 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.