Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (83%) · Timberwolves at 90¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
6
Timberwolves 83%
$6.4K
$1.8K
59.3¢ → 90¢
+52% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Timberwolvesavg 59¢ | $4.2K | $6.0K | +$1.8K | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
 RN1 | Timberwolvesavg 62¢ | $155.69 | $158.13 | +$3.67 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
FO Forecastication2 | Timberwolvesavg 64¢ | $97.92 | $129.29 | +$31.36 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
TO tomb2456<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 62.9¢ | $60.54 | $81.38 | +$1.1 | 50% 262-266 (528) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 59.5¢ | $38.06 | $40.32 | +$2.26 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 20¢ | $9.68 | $7.49 | -$2.19 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$4,176.44
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
RN1Invested
$155.69
Value
$158.13
PnL
+$3.67
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$97.92
Value
$129.29
PnL
+$31.36
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
Invested
$60.54
Value
$81.38
PnL
+$1.1
Record
50%
262-266 (528)
Invested
$38.06
Value
$40.32
PnL
+$2.26
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.68
Value
$7.49
PnL
-$2.19
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.