Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Timberwolves (55%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (38%) · Cavaliers at 46¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26

Cavaliers46¢Timberwolves54¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$48.66

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 45.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers46%

Timberwolves55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,246

Combined PnL-$39.53

Timberwolves5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,896

Combined PnL-$9.13

Cavaliers — 38%Timberwolves — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 54.2¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$0.58	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 54.2¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$19.89
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$20.47
scootergeneCTR	Cavaliersavg 45.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$39.59	55% 359-293 (652)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Timberwolvesavg 58¢	$580	$585	+$5	53% 5255-4588 (9843)
RN1	Timberwolvesavg 56.4¢	$417.4	$403.79	-$13.87	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Timberwolvesavg 55.8¢	$35.07	$34.41	-$0.76	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
VeryLucky888<$100	Timberwolvesavg 57¢	$28.79	$29.55	+$0.76	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Timberwolvesavg 55¢	$27.28	$27.03	-$0.25	50% 3610-3579 (7189)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 41.9¢	$6.91	$7.1	+$0.18	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.23	-$0.13	59% 7418-5134 (12552)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$4,978.66

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$0.58

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$3,095.3354.2¢+$19.89

Cavaliers$1,883.3346¢-$20.47

scootergeneCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,474.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$39.59

Record

55%

359-293 (652)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Timberwolves

Invested

$580

Value

$585

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5255-4588 (9843)

RN1

Timberwolves

Invested

$417.4

Value

$403.79

PnL

-$13.87

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$35.07

Value

$34.41

PnL

-$0.76

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

VeryLucky888<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$28.79

Value

$29.55

PnL

+$0.76

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

NatoAlfista<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$27.28

Value

$27.03

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

3610-3579 (7189)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$6.91

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

RLWGCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

7418-5134 (12552)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.