Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (50%) · Timberwolves at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Cavaliers49¢Timberwolves51¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$29.7

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 51.5¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers49%

Timberwolves52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves2 traders

Total Value$557.18

Total Shares1,063

Combined PnL-$30.4

Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$74.34

Total Shares154

Combined PnL+$0.7

Timberwolves — 50%Cavaliers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 47.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$41.02	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 47.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$25.68
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 50.1¢	$552.08	$567.42	+$15.34
RN1	Timberwolvesavg 54.6¢	$534.83	$504.73	-$30.1	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$67.2	$67.9	+$0.7	63% 5890-3452 (9342)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Timberwolvesavg 56¢	$56.07	$52.45	-$0.3	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$6.44	$6.44	+$0	55% 2163-1776 (3939)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,583.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$41.02

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$1,031.4747.3¢+$25.68

Timberwolves$552.0850.1¢+$15.34

RN1

Timberwolves

Invested

$534.83

Value

$504.73

PnL

-$30.1

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$67.2

Value

$67.9

PnL

+$0.7

Record

63%

5890-3452 (9342)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$56.07

Value

$52.45

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.