Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Timberwolves (52%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (57%) · Cavaliers at 49¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 26

Cavaliers49¢Timberwolves51¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 48.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers49%

Timberwolves52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers4 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares33,589

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,240

Combined PnL+$44.38

Cavaliers — 57%Timberwolves — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Cavaliersavg 50¢	$15.0K	$13.7K	$-1.4K	50% 31-31 (62)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$80.37	54% 15300-12775 (28075)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$212.44
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$132.06
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Cavaliersavg 46.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$47.62	62% 3879-2328 (6207)
RN1ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 51.4¢	$809.52	$805.52	-$9.5	54% 51398-43356 (94754)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51.4¢	$564.52	$560.52	-$9.5
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$245	$245	+$0
VeryLucky888	Timberwolvesavg 51.9¢	$798.96	$673.08	+$29.15	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Timberwolvesavg 53¢	$530	$545	+$15	53% 5196-4520 (9716)
AS astapzippoCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$85.26	$84.39	-$0.87	56% 2045-1587 (3632)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 51.4¢	$70.19	$69.96	-$0.22	57% 24239-18661 (42900)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51.4¢	$43.73	$43.78	+$0.05
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$26.46	$26.19	-$0.27
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$45.57	$42.31	-$3.25	63% 5793-3427 (9220)
RL RLWG<$100	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.73	+$0.23	59% 7413-5131 (12544)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$15,000

Value

$13.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$4,216.72

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$80.37

Record

54%

15300-12775 (28075)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$2,367.8350¢+$212.44

Cavaliers$1,848.949¢-$132.06

SunlineTickerCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,559.06

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$47.62

Record

62%

3879-2328 (6207)

RN1ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$809.52

Value

$805.52

PnL

-$9.5

Record

54%

51398-43356 (94754)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$564.5251.4¢-$9.5

Cavaliers$24549¢+$0

VeryLucky888

Timberwolves

Invested

$798.96

Value

$673.08

PnL

+$29.15

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Timberwolves

Invested

$530

Value

$545

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5196-4520 (9716)

astapzippoCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$85.26

Value

$84.39

PnL

-$0.87

Record

56%

2045-1587 (3632)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$70.19

Value

$69.96

PnL

-$0.22

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$43.7351.4¢+$0.05

Cavaliers$26.4649¢-$0.27

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$45.57

Value

$42.31

PnL

-$3.25

Record

63%

5793-3427 (9220)

RLWG<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.23

Record

59%

7413-5131 (12544)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.