Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (33%) · Cavaliers at 53¢ · $39K held · ends Oct 26

Cavaliers53¢Timberwolves47¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.3K

Combined PnL

-$499.48

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers53%

Timberwolves48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers4 traders

Total Value$32.0K

Total Shares63,387

Combined PnL-$683.96

Timberwolves8 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares13,805

Combined PnL+$184.48

Cavaliers — 33%Timberwolves — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Cavaliersavg 51.8¢	$25.6K	$25.0K	-$638.67	50% 1083-1075 (2158)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$150	47% 2249-2495 (4744)
HO HomeRunHazard	Cavaliersavg 53¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$195.1	54% 15300-12775 (28075)
SU SunlineTicker	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$152.56	62% 3879-2328 (6207)
FO forecastication4CTR	Timberwolvesavg 46¢	$593.83	$639.01	+$45.18	49% 1039-1102 (2141)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$544.5	$539.06	-$5.45	63% 5793-3427 (9220)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$490	$495	+$5	53% 5196-4520 (9716)
RN1ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 52.5¢	$380	$381.25	-$1.25	54% 51398-43356 (94754)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 52.5¢	$262.5	$262.5	-$0
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 47¢	$117.5	$118.75	-$1.25
VeryLucky888CTR	Timberwolvesavg 47.3¢	$701.28	$135.36	-$12.69	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 51.1¢	$79.56	$80.67	+$1.11	57% 24239-18661 (42900)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 51.1¢	$42.94	$44.09	+$1.15
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 47.6¢	$36.62	$36.57	-$0.05
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Cavaliersavg 53¢	$58.3	$55.55	-$2.75	54% 2855-2433 (5288)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$41.76	$43.07	+$1.3	51% 5910-5681 (11591)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 47.7¢	$14.3	$14.85	+$0.55	56% 6682-5351 (12033)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 47¢	$10.81	$11.39	+$0.58	55% 2151-1765 (3916)

mooseborzoii

Cavaliers

Invested

$25,591.27

Value

$25.0K

PnL

-$638.67

Record

50%

1083-1075 (2158)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$4,800

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$150

Record

47%

2249-2495 (4744)

HomeRunHazard

Cavaliers

Invested

$4,136.2

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$195.1

Record

54%

15300-12775 (28075)

SunlineTicker

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,908.83

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$152.56

Record

62%

3879-2328 (6207)

forecastication4CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$593.83

Value

$639.01

PnL

+$45.18

Record

49%

1039-1102 (2141)

Forecastication2CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$544.5

Value

$539.06

PnL

-$5.45

Record

63%

5793-3427 (9220)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$490

Value

$495

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5196-4520 (9716)

RN1ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$380

Value

$381.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

51398-43356 (94754)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$262.552.5¢-$0

Timberwolves$117.547¢-$1.25

VeryLucky888CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$701.28

Value

$135.36

PnL

-$12.69

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$79.56

Value

$80.67

PnL

+$1.11

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$42.9451.1¢+$1.15

Timberwolves$36.6247.6¢-$0.05

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$58.3

Value

$55.55

PnL

-$2.75

Record

54%

2855-2433 (5288)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$41.76

Value

$43.07

PnL

+$1.3

Record

51%

5910-5681 (11591)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$14.3

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.55

Record

56%

6682-5351 (12033)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$10.81

Value

$11.39

PnL

+$0.58

Record

55%

2151-1765 (3916)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.