Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (50%) · Cavaliers at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26

Cavaliers56¢Timberwolves44¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$47.69

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers56%

Timberwolves44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers1 trader

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,992

Combined PnL+$51.84

Timberwolves1 trader

Total Value$37.65

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$4.14

Cavaliers — 50%Timberwolves — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Cavaliersavg 54.7¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$51.84	50% 1083-1075 (2158)
RN1ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 56¢	$502.47	$499.97	-$5	54% 51828-43764 (95592)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 56¢	$279.98	$279.98	-$0
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 44.5¢	$222.5	$220	-$5
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 45.5¢	$114	$55.8	-$0.06	57% 24505-18852 (43357)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 45.5¢	$30.48	$29.48	-$1
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 54¢	$25.38	$26.32	+$0.94
VeryLucky888CTR	Timberwolvesavg 44.7¢	$261.8	$37.65	-$4.14	58% 37543-27331 (64874)

mooseborzoii

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,183.9

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$51.84

Record

50%

1083-1075 (2158)

RN1ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$502.47

Value

$499.97

PnL

-$5

Record

54%

51828-43764 (95592)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$279.9856¢-$0

Timberwolves$222.544.5¢-$5

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$114

Value

$55.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

24505-18852 (43357)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$30.4845.5¢-$1

Cavaliers$25.3854¢+$0.94

VeryLucky888CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$261.8

Value

$37.65

PnL

-$4.14

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

1 of 2 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.