Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (75%) · Cavaliers at 58¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
4
Cavaliers 75%
$9.6K
-$35.97
59.5¢ → 58.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Cavaliersavg 59.4¢ | $7.9K | $4.6K | -$69.32 | 54% 16108-13511 (29619) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Timberwolvesavg 40.5¢ | $4.2K | $4.3K | +$48.33 | 62% 3922-2385 (6307) |
 RN1 | Cavaliersavg 60.2¢ | $640.5 | $627.36 | -$13.13 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Cavaliersavg 59.5¢ | $51.39 | $50.47 | -$1.85 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
Invested
$7,943.77
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$69.32
Record
54%
16108-13511 (29619)
Invested
$4,242.98
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$48.33
Record
62%
3922-2385 (6307)
RN1Invested
$640.5
Value
$627.36
PnL
-$13.13
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Invested
$51.39
Value
$50.47
PnL
-$1.85
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.