Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (63%) · Cavaliers at 87¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Timberwolves14¢Cavaliers86¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$151.61

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 86.5¢

+58% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves14%

Cavaliers87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,100

Combined PnL+$50.62

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,823

Combined PnL+$100.99

Cavaliers — 63%Timberwolves — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTimberwolves 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Cavaliersavg 54.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$45.01	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
GA gagarin59CTR	Timberwolvesavg 44¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$135.95	53% 597-533 (1130)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Cavaliersavg 50.8¢	$128.75	$142.03	+$13.28	48% 413-442 (855)
TA takeormakeCTR	Timberwolvesavg 20.5¢	$145.8	$113.6	-$32.2	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$101.37	$105.58	+$4.21	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$51.45	$54.08	+$2.63
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 47¢	$49.92	$51.51	+$1.59
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538<$100	Cavaliersavg 49.8¢	$64.7	$72.8	+$8.1	68% 1421-679 (2100)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 24¢	$22.08	$40.48	-$2.76	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Cavaliersavg 78.6¢	$56.56	$40.32	-$16.24	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
HRTrading<$100	Cavaliersavg 76¢	$6.96	$7.42	+$0.46	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

HomeRunHazard

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,178.56

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$45.01

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

gagarin59CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,193.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$135.95

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Cavaliers

Invested

$128.75

Value

$142.03

PnL

+$13.28

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

takeormakeCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$145.8

Value

$113.6

PnL

-$32.2

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$101.37

Value

$105.58

PnL

+$4.21

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$51.4549¢+$2.63

Cavaliers$49.9247¢+$1.59

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$64.7

Value

$72.8

PnL

+$8.1

Record

68%

1421-679 (2100)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$22.08

Value

$40.48

PnL

-$2.76

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$56.56

Value

$40.32

PnL

-$16.24

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

HRTrading<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$6.96

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$0.46

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTimberwolves 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Cavaliers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.