Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (50%) · Cavaliers at 82¢ · $33K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
4
Cavaliers 50%
2 arb excluded
$32.8K
$634.26
48.1¢ → 81.5¢
+69% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 82%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Cavaliersavg 47.8¢ | $11.7K | $12.4K | +$764.44 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
KA KaneAnalyticsCTR | Timberwolvesavg 52¢ | $6.3K | $6.2K | -$121.3 | 53% 339-304 (643) |
 NooseracCTR | Timberwolvesavg 52¢ | $5.2K | $5.0K | -$150 | 52% 5657-5205 (10862) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 49.8¢ | $4.4K | $4.4K | +$8.39 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 49.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$35.34 | |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 50¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$43.74 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Cavaliersavg 48.1¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$108.71 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 48.1¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$198.74 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 50.1¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$90.04 | |
TA takeormake | Cavaliersavg 54.4¢ | $640.94 | $782.05 | +$141.12 | 54% 3607-3130 (6737) |
Invested
$11,671.29
Value
$12.4K
PnL
+$764.44
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Invested
$6,307.63
Value
$6.2K
PnL
-$121.3
Record
53%
339-304 (643)
NooseracCTRInvested
$5,200
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$150
Record
52%
5657-5205 (10862)
Invested
$4,355.33
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$8.39
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,902.01
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$108.71
Record
56%
2433-1896 (4329)
Both legs:
Invested
$640.94
Value
$782.05
PnL
+$141.12
Record
54%
3607-3130 (6737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.