Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Cavaliers (61%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (80%) · Timberwolves at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Timberwolves<1¢Cavaliers61¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 80%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 61%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves0%

Cavaliers61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,768

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Cavaliers2 traders

Total Value$160.73

Total Shares238

Combined PnL+$3.38

Timberwolves — 80%Cavaliers — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048CTR	Timberwolvesavg 77.4¢	$1.8K	$907.52	-$892.47	69% 233-105 (338)
TA takeormakeCTR	Timberwolvesavg 51.2¢	$818.97	$624.12	-$194.85	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
hammyandcheeseCTR	Timberwolvesavg 61¢	$610	$375	-$235	58% 341-251 (592)
AN Anon455CTR	Timberwolvesavg 42.6¢	$626.72	$213.52	-$413.2	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
RollAwayTheDew	Cavaliersavg 61¢	$120.8	$123.77	+$2.97	52% 270-247 (517)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Cavaliersavg 61.1¢	$36.56	$36.96	+$0.41	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
US User7429CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 26¢	$21.58	$32.37	+$10.79	55% 7956-6447 (14403)
GA GaditimaCTR	Timberwolvesavg 55.7¢	$85.85	$13.61	-$72.23	—
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 64¢	$19.2	$11.7	-$7.5	48% 4386-4837 (9223)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 14¢	$1.1	$1.14	+$0.04	54% 2299-1927 (4226)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,800

Value

$907.52

PnL

-$892.47

Record

69%

233-105 (338)

takeormakeCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$818.97

Value

$624.12

PnL

-$194.85

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

hammyandcheeseCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$610

Value

$375

PnL

-$235

Record

58%

341-251 (592)

Anon455CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$626.72

Value

$213.52

PnL

-$413.2

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

RollAwayTheDew

Cavaliers

Invested

$120.8

Value

$123.77

PnL

+$2.97

Record

52%

270-247 (517)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$36.56

Value

$36.96

PnL

+$0.41

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

User7429CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$21.58

Value

$32.37

PnL

+$10.79

Record

55%

7956-6447 (14403)

GaditimaCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$85.85

Value

$13.61

PnL

-$72.23

Record

—

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$19.2

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$7.5

Record

48%

4386-4837 (9223)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 61%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.