Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (50%) · Cavaliers at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
6
Cavaliers 50%
$2.8K
$513.83
48.6¢ → 52.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO DolphinBaller | Cavaliersavg 48.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$425.13 | 45% 69-83 (152) |
FO forecastication4 | Cavaliersavg 50¢ | $389.75 | $409.23 | +$19.49 | 48% 970-1035 (2005) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Timberwolvesavg 42¢ | $220.89 | $257.71 | +$36.82 | 61% 4820-3045 (7865) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Timberwolvesavg 41¢ | $122.61 | $149.53 | +$26.91 | 54% 1786-1498 (3284) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 42¢ | $42.69 | $50.82 | +$8.13 | 54% 257-219 (476) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Cavaliersavg 58.6¢ | $20.5 | $17.85 | -$2.65 | 55% 15069-12329 (27398) |
Invested
$1,493.13
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$425.13
Record
45%
69-83 (152)
Invested
$389.75
Value
$409.23
PnL
+$19.49
Record
48%
970-1035 (2005)
Invested
$220.89
Value
$257.71
PnL
+$36.82
Record
61%
4820-3045 (7865)
Invested
$122.61
Value
$149.53
PnL
+$26.91
Record
54%
1786-1498 (3284)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$42.69
Value
$50.82
PnL
+$8.13
Record
54%
257-219 (476)
Invested
$20.5
Value
$17.85
PnL
-$2.65
Record
55%
15069-12329 (27398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.