Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 56¢ · $538 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$537.94
-$5.39
56.9¢ → 56¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $250 | $250 | -$0 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56¢ | $140 | $140 | +$0 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $110 | $110 | -$0 | |
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 57¢ | $244.2 | $239.92 | -$4.28 | 62% 3922-2385 (6307) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $25.19 | $24.64 | -$1.11 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $23.38 | $23.38 | +$0 | 50% 3625-3593 (7218) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$250
Value
$250
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Both legs:
Invested
$244.2
Value
$239.92
PnL
-$4.28
Record
62%
3922-2385 (6307)
Invested
$25.19
Value
$24.64
PnL
-$1.11
Record
57%
26839-19987 (46826)
Invested
$23.38
Value
$23.38
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3625-3593 (7218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.