Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 13 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (87%) · Over at 47¢ · $44K held · ends Oct 27

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 87%

Total Value

$44.5K

Combined PnL

-$436.12

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 46.5¢

-4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares39,282

Combined PnL-$560.24

Over13 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares48,256

Combined PnL+$124.12

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 52¢	$19.2K	$18.6K	-$548.26	46% 392-454 (846)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$11.7K	$11.5K	-$233.83	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Overavg 48¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$150.6	50% 1083-1075 (2158)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 48¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$120	47% 2260-2508 (4768)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$62.28	52% 4583-4245 (8828)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$11.98	59% 2564-1803 (4367)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 50¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$10	62% 3795-2300 (6095)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 49¢	$490	$505	+$15	53% 5255-4588 (9843)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$262.61	$257.83	-$4.79	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$242.5	$247.5	+$5	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$82.64	$80.9	-$1.75	56% 24547-18914 (43461)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$41.76	$43.07	+$1.3	51% 6065-5810 (11875)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$10.81	$10.92	+$0.11	54% 2855-2433 (5288)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.95	+$0.15	56% 6695-5367 (12062)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2	$2.02	+$0.02	63% 5890-3452 (9342)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$19,175.69

Value

$18.6K

PnL

-$548.26

Record

46%

392-454 (846)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$11,729.93

Value

$11.5K

PnL

-$233.83

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Over

Invested

$4,819.3

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$150.6

Record

50%

1083-1075 (2158)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$3,840

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$120

Record

47%

2260-2508 (4768)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,993.09

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$62.28

Record

52%

4583-4245 (8828)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$1,198

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$11.98

Record

59%

2564-1803 (4367)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

62%

3795-2300 (6095)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$505

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5255-4588 (9843)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$262.61

Value

$257.83

PnL

-$4.79

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$242.5

Value

$247.5

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.64

Value

$80.9

PnL

-$1.75

Record

56%

24547-18914 (43461)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.76

Value

$43.07

PnL

+$1.3

Record

51%

6065-5810 (11875)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.81

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

2855-2433 (5288)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

6695-5367 (12062)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

63%

5890-3452 (9342)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.