Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Yes (53%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 47¢ · $2K held

Yes53¢Under47¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$1.26

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 47¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,074

Combined PnL+$11.24

Over1 trader

Total Value$262.49

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$12.5

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.69	54% 16108-13511 (29619)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 47¢	$470	$470	+$0	53% 5353-4694 (10047)
BE betwithconvic	Overavg 55¢	$274.99	$262.49	-$12.5	57% 476-356 (832)
RN1CTR	Underavg 47¢	$211.1	$211.08	-$0.01	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$123.12	$119.24	+$0.21	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$49.82	$49.82	+$0	50% 3625-3593 (7218)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 46.4¢	$27.37	$27.73	+$0.36	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$5.17	$5.17	+$0	63% 6058-3547 (9605)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,021

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.69

Record

54%

16108-13511 (29619)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$470

Value

$470

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5353-4694 (10047)

betwithconvic

Over

Invested

$274.99

Value

$262.49

PnL

-$12.5

Record

57%

476-356 (832)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$211.1

Value

$211.08

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$123.12

Value

$119.24

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.82

Value

$49.82

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3625-3593 (7218)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.37

Value

$27.73

PnL

+$0.36

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

6058-3547 (9605)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.