Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$751.11

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 56¢

+17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,929

Combined PnL+$775.02

Over2 traders

Total Value$36.21

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$23.91

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gagarin59	Underavg 47¢	$3.3K	$2.2K	+$635.24	53% 598-534 (1132)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52.7¢	$670.92	$493.12	+$139.77	48% 414-442 (856)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$54.72	$31.68	-$23.04	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 27.6¢	$5.4	$4.53	-$0.87	54% 2345-1973 (4318)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$3,258.53

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$635.24

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$670.92

Value

$493.12

PnL

+$139.77

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.72

Value

$31.68

PnL

-$23.04

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.4

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.87

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.