Spread: Jazz (-2.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (60%) · Grizzlies at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Jazz44¢Grizzlies56¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 60%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$4.07

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 56¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz44%

Grizzlies56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,197

Combined PnL+$3.74

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,240

Combined PnL+$0.33

Grizzlies — 60%Jazz — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0.72	54% 16108-13511 (29619)
0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062CTR	Jazzavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	34% 119-229 (348)
TO tomb2456<$100	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$82.54	$84.04	+$1.5	50% 262-266 (528)
RN1<$100	Grizzliesavg 54¢	$41.09	$42.61	+$1.52	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$23.49	$23.48	+$0.33	57% 26839-19987 (46826)

HomeRunHazard

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,782.94

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0.72

Record

54%

16108-13511 (29619)

0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,411

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

119-229 (348)

tomb2456<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$82.54

Value

$84.04

PnL

+$1.5

Record

50%

262-266 (528)

RN1<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$41.09

Value

$42.61

PnL

+$1.52

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$23.49

Value

$23.48

PnL

+$0.33

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.