Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Grizzlies (51%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Jazz (-1.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (100%) · Jazz at 50¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
3
Jazz 100%
2 arb excluded
$16.4K
-$127.75
50.6¢ → 49.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Grizzliesavg 49.4¢ | $10.0K | $10.2K | +$174.27 | 54% 15474-12956 (28430) |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 49.4¢ | $5.1K | $5.2K | +$115.81 | |
| └ Jazz leg | Jazzavg 48.9¢ | $4.9K | $5.0K | +$58.46 | |
LI lightotunnel35CTR | Jazzavg 50.8¢ | $5.1K | $4.9K | -$127.81 | 53% 41-36 (77) |
 ComingBackCTR | Jazzavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $990 | -$10 | 62% 3795-2300 (6095) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Jazzavg 49¢ | $643.44 | $128.6 | +$10.06 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Jazzavg 49¢ | $76.33 | $76.78 | +$0.45 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
| └ Jazz leg | Jazzavg 49¢ | $48.01 | $48.5 | +$0.49 | |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 50.6¢ | $28.32 | $28.28 | -$0.04 |
Invested
$10,030.48
Value
$10.2K
PnL
+$174.27
Record
54%
15474-12956 (28430)
Both legs:
Invested
$5,077.81
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$127.81
Record
53%
41-36 (77)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$990
PnL
-$10
Record
62%
3795-2300 (6095)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$643.44
Value
$128.6
PnL
+$10.06
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$76.33
Value
$76.78
PnL
+$0.45
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.