Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (42%) · Grizzlies at 60¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Grizzlies60¢Jazz40¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$63.94

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 59.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies60%

Jazz41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,297

Combined PnL-$62.87

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$550.74

Total Shares951

Combined PnL-$1.07

Grizzlies — 42%Jazz — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 43.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$45.19	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 43.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$33.67
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 48.4¢	$398.71	$477.57	+$78.85
TA takeormake	Grizzliesavg 68¢	$575.28	$571.05	-$4.23	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
RN1CTR	Jazzavg 58.5¢	$292.5	$285	-$7.5	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
scootergene	Grizzliesavg 41¢	$248.79	$263.96	+$15.17	55% 364-300 (664)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Grizzliesavg 52¢	$290.74	$234.83	-$55.91	48% 413-442 (855)
AC acorpCTR	Jazzavg 61¢	$158.6	$148.2	-$10.4	50% 610-620 (1230)
hammyandcheese<$100	Grizzliesavg 54¢	$98.82	$76.86	-$21.96	58% 341-251 (592)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 41¢	$42.23	$59.74	+$17.51	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Grizzliesavg 39¢	$39.65	$43.71	+$4.07	52% 270-247 (517)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 59¢	$22.36	$22.56	+$0.2	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jazzavg 61¢	$15.86	$15.08	-$0.78	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jazzavg 57¢	$20	$11.3	-$0.1	56% 6768-5418 (12186)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Jazzavg 57¢	$8.87	$8.87	+$0	58% 39876-28789 (68665)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,501.57

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$45.19

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$1,102.8643.3¢-$33.67

Jazz$398.7148.4¢+$78.85

takeormake

Grizzlies

Invested

$575.28

Value

$571.05

PnL

-$4.23

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

RN1CTR

Jazz

Invested

$292.5

Value

$285

PnL

-$7.5

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

scootergene

Grizzlies

Invested

$248.79

Value

$263.96

PnL

+$15.17

Record

55%

364-300 (664)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Grizzlies

Invested

$290.74

Value

$234.83

PnL

-$55.91

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

acorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$158.6

Value

$148.2

PnL

-$10.4

Record

50%

610-620 (1230)

hammyandcheese<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$98.82

Value

$76.86

PnL

-$21.96

Record

58%

341-251 (592)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$42.23

Value

$59.74

PnL

+$17.51

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$39.65

Value

$43.71

PnL

+$4.07

Record

52%

270-247 (517)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$22.36

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$15.86

Value

$15.08

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$20

Value

$11.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

6768-5418 (12186)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$8.87

Value

$8.87

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

39876-28789 (68665)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.