Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Grizzlies (62%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (67%) · Jazz at 38¢ · $11K held

Grizzlies62¢Jazz38¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 67%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 38¢

-28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies62%

Jazz38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz6 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares21,948

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Grizzlies3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,276

Combined PnL-$282.09

Jazz — 67%Grizzlies — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jazzavg 52.3¢	$10.3K	$7.5K	$-2.8K	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
GA gagarin59	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$299.83	53% 597-533 (1130)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 54.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$24.86	58% 39876-28789 (68665)
AN Anon455	Grizzliesavg 60¢	$499.72	$515.44	+$15.72	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
RN1CTR	Jazzavg 54¢	$135	$132.5	-$2.5	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
TA takeormake<$100	Grizzliesavg 71¢	$95.85	$97.88	+$2.03	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 43¢	$42.14	$52.92	+$10.78	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 54.4¢	$86	$46.01	-$0.79	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$5.1	$5.51	+$0.41	48% 413-442 (855)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jazz

Invested

$10,256.28

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

gagarin59

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,832.32

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$299.83

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,227.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$24.86

Record

58%

39876-28789 (68665)

Anon455

Grizzlies

Invested

$499.72

Value

$515.44

PnL

+$15.72

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

RN1CTR

Jazz

Invested

$135

Value

$132.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

takeormake<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$95.85

Value

$97.88

PnL

+$2.03

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$42.14

Value

$52.92

PnL

+$10.78

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$86

Value

$46.01

PnL

-$0.79

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.51

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.