Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (50%) · Jazz at 52¢ · $397 held · ends Oct 27

Grizzlies48¢Jazz52¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$397.33

Combined PnL

-$0.07

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 52¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies48%

Jazz52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$300.11

Total Shares527

Combined PnL+$0.12

Grizzlies2 traders

Total Value$14.14

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.2

Jazz — 50%Grizzlies — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Jazzavg 52¢	$155.73	$157.87	+$2.14	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 53.8¢	$144.26	$142.25	-$2.01	54% 16108-13511 (29619)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Jazzavg 52.6¢	$81.66	$83.07	+$1.41	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 52.6¢	$45.12	$45.07	-$0.05
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 45.7¢	$36.54	$38	+$1.46
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$12	$11.75	-$0.25	63% 6058-3547 (9605)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 46¢	$2.34	$2.39	+$0.05	53% 5353-4694 (10047)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$155.73

Value

$157.87

PnL

+$2.14

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$144.26

Value

$142.25

PnL

-$2.01

Record

54%

16108-13511 (29619)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$81.66

Value

$83.07

PnL

+$1.41

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

Both legs:

Jazz$45.1252.6¢-$0.05

Grizzlies$36.5445.7¢+$1.46

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$12

Value

$11.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

63%

6058-3547 (9605)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

5353-4694 (10047)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.