Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 239.5

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 61¢ · $82K held

Yes43¢Under61¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$81.8K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 60.5¢

+23% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensus80 %+, $50k+ on the side, price 0.50–0.95: +10.3 % a trade (n 172, 95 % CI +2.1 to +18.3), positive in both windows; picked after seeing the table.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 12 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$81.8K

Total Shares163,537

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO Jokerxing7	Underavg 49¢	$75.4K	$76.9K	+$1.5K	38% 45-72 (117)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 45.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$94	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$34.42	46% 338-390 (728)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 59.4¢	$946.44	$907.44	-$39	67% 3627-1751 (5378)
latvian.demon	Underavg 51.7¢	$625	$604.88	-$20.12	53% 567-494 (1061)
TO tomb2456	Underavg 59¢	$312.11	$301.53	-$10.58	50% 254-250 (504)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 42¢	$54.18	$47.73	-$6.45	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$23.34	$26.31	+$2.98	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Underavg 49¢	$11.76	$13.68	+$1.92	49% 365-385 (750)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 49¢	$11.76	$13.68	+$1.92	71% 18600-7590 (26190)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$7.4	$7.5	+$0.1	51% 4547-4285 (8832)
balthazar<$100	Underavg 17¢	$3.4	$6.9	+$3.5	64% 14982-8561 (23543)

Jokerxing7

Under

Invested

$75,350.68

Value

$76.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

38%

45-72 (117)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,742.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$94

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,156.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.42

Record

46%

338-390 (728)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$946.44

Value

$907.44

PnL

-$39

Record

67%

3627-1751 (5378)

latvian.demon

Under

Invested

$625

Value

$604.88

PnL

-$20.12

Record

53%

567-494 (1061)

tomb2456

Under

Invested

$312.11

Value

$301.53

PnL

-$10.58

Record

50%

254-250 (504)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$54.18

Value

$47.73

PnL

-$6.45

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$23.34

Value

$26.31

PnL

+$2.98

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

seeeeeeb<$100

Under

Invested

$11.76

Value

$13.68

PnL

+$1.92

Record

49%

365-385 (750)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$11.76

Value

$13.68

PnL

+$1.92

Record

71%

18600-7590 (26190)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

4547-4285 (8832)

balthazar<$100

Under

Invested

$3.4

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$3.5

Record

64%

14982-8561 (23543)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensus80 %+, $50k+ on the side, price 0.50–0.95: +10.3 % a trade (n 172, 95 % CI +2.1 to +18.3), positive in both windows; picked after seeing the table.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 12 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.