Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 237.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 43¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 100%
3 arb excluded
$4.0K
-$97.17
45.6¢ → 42.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 55.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$47.56 | 55% 12111-9992 (22103) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$61.24 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$13.68 | |
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $461.35 | $442.56 | -$18.79 | 68% 3515-1686 (5201) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45¢ | $355.05 | $335.33 | -$19.73 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 57¢ | $106.3 | $107.23 | +$0.93 | |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 46.2¢ | $461.67 | $430 | -$26.67 | 69% 4259-1919 (6178) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $2.0K | $365.99 | -$69.9 | 66% 83-42 (125) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 45.3¢ | $61.44 | $61.39 | -$0.05 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.3¢ | $37.57 | $35.28 | -$2.3 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.6¢ | $23.87 | $26.11 | +$2.25 | |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $8.6 | -$0.6 | 56% 6353-5083 (11436) |
Invested
$2,626
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$47.56
Record
55%
12111-9992 (22103)
Both legs:
Invested
$461.35
Value
$442.56
PnL
-$18.79
Record
68%
3515-1686 (5201)
Both legs:
Invested
$461.67
Value
$430
PnL
-$26.67
Record
69%
4259-1919 (6178)
Invested
$2,036.37
Value
$365.99
PnL
-$69.9
Record
66%
83-42 (125)
Invested
$61.44
Value
$61.39
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$9.2
Value
$8.6
PnL
-$0.6
Record
56%
6353-5083 (11436)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.